Decisions
15 min

Opportunity-cost framing

Restate every option as what you give up by taking it, because the real alternative to a choice is the best thing you do not do.

Time cost
15 min
Output
Each option written as a trade.
Steps
5

Use when

  • An option looks good in isolation and you have not compared it to anything.
  • Resources are fixed and every yes is a no somewhere else.
  • A decision is framed as “should we do this?” rather than “instead of what?”.

Do not use when

  • The resource is not actually scarce.
  • The alternatives are not available to you, which makes the cost notional.

Inputs required

  • The option under consideration
  • An honest list of what else the same resource could buy

Procedure

  1. 01

    Name the resource

    Money, hours, attention, political capital, or a slot that only holds one thing. Be specific about which is binding.

  2. 02

    Name the next best use

    Not the average alternative — the best one you would actually take. This is the real cost.

  3. 03

    Restate the question

    Not “is this worth doing?” but “is this better than that?”. The first question almost always answers yes.

  4. 04

    Check the reverse

    Ask whether you would switch from the alternative to this option if you were currently holding the alternative. If not, you are being held by the status quo.

  5. 05

    Write the trade

    For every yes, write the specific no. If you cannot name it, the trade has not been made.

Characteristic failure mode

Comparing against a fantasy alternative. The next best use has to be something you would genuinely do, or the cost is inflated and every option loses.

Worked example

A person considers a £4,000 professional course.

  1. 01Binding resource: £4,000 and roughly 120 evenings.
  2. 02Next best use of the money: nothing compelling. Next best use of 120 evenings: finishing a portfolio that is currently half-built.
  3. 03Restated: is the course better than a finished portfolio?

Result

The money was never the constraint. The evenings were, and the comparison only became real once the right resource was named.

Where to go next