Decision quality chain
Score six links of a decision and act on the weakest one, because quality is capped by the worst link rather than averaged across them.
- Time cost
- 20 min
- Output
- Six scores and one named weakest link.
- Steps
- 7
Use when
- A decision feels stuck and you cannot name what is missing.
- You want to know whether more analysis would help before you buy more analysis.
- A group disagrees about the answer and you suspect they disagree about the question.
Do not use when
- The decision is cheap and reversible. Scoring six links costs more than the mistake.
- You have already committed and are looking for a reason. The chain will find one.
Inputs required
- A decision stated as a sentence
- Ten minutes
- Honesty about which links are thin
Procedure
- 01
Frame
Write what is in scope, what is out, and what the decision is for. Score 0–100 on whether someone else would draw the same boundary.
- 02
Alternatives
List the options under real consideration. Score low if there are fewer than three, or if one exists only to make another look good.
- 03
Information
Rate what you know about the things that actually move the answer. Volume of data is not the measure; relevance to the decision is.
- 04
Values
Write what you are trying to maximise and what you will trade away. Score low if you cannot say what you would give up.
- 05
Reasoning
Check that the logic connecting information to choice holds. Score low if the conclusion would survive the evidence being reversed.
- 06
Commitment
Rate whether the people who must act will act. A decision nobody executes scores zero here regardless of the other five.
- 07
Act on the minimum
Find the lowest score. That link is your decision quality. Spend your next hour there and nowhere else.
Characteristic failure mode
Worked example
Someone is choosing whether to move cities for a job.
- 01Frame 80 — clear: this is about the next three years, not the rest of a life.
- 02Alternatives 30 — only “take it” and “stay”. No third option has been looked for.
- 03Information 70 — salary and cost of living are known; the team is not.
- 04Values 40 — “a better career” is named, but nothing is named as tradeable.
- 05Reasoning 75, Commitment 85.
Result
The weakest link is alternatives at 30. The next hour goes to finding a third option — negotiating remote, or a different role in the current city — not to more research on rent.
Where this disagrees with another method
The chain says diagnose before deciding; door analysis says most decisions deserve no diagnosis at all. Run the door test first. If it is a two-way door, skip the chain.
Where to go next